How to decide whether to bid: a go / no-go guide
Use the published evaluation criteria, functionality threshold, price formula, and preference points to decide if a tender is worth preparing. No fake win percentage.
A government tender is not a lottery, and it is not a percentage on a dashboard. Smart bidders make a go / no-go call from the published evaluation criteria, their own compliance standing, and an honest look at price and preference points.
Tenderpreneurs does not show a “win probability” score. Those percentages are not statistically reliable in South African public procurement. Use the official scoring rules instead.
Step 1: Dissect the criteria
Start with the evaluation criteria and their weightings. In a typical 80/20 tender with functionality, a minimum functionality threshold must be passed, then 80 points for price and 20 for specific goals.
Functionality is often scored out of 100, with a threshold of, say, 70 points. If your own honest self-assessment against the published scoring matrix gives you only 65 points, do not bid. Price will not save a bid that fails functionality.
Step 2: Estimate your price score
If you clear functionality, estimate your likely price score. The PPPFA formula awards the lowest acceptable price the full price points. A higher price scores:
(Lowest acceptable price ÷ Your price) × price points.
Example: expected lowest bid R2 million, your price R2.5 million, 80/20 tender → (2 / 2.5) × 80 = 64 points.
Step 3: Calculate your specific-goal points
Read the preference matrix in the bid pack. Example:
- 10 points to B-BBEE Level 1, and you hold Level 2 → 9 points
- 5 points to locality, and you are in the municipal area → 5 points
- 5 points to women ownership, and you qualify → 5 points
Total: 19 out of 20. A Level 1 competitor with the same locality might get the full 20.
Step 4: Combine and decide
Functionality pass + price 64 + goals 19 = 83 out of 100 on paper. That is not an 83% chance of winning. You still do not know how many capable firms will respond, who will under-price, or who will be disqualified.
Use it as a go / no-go filter:
- Fail functionality or a mandatory requirement → no-go.
- Price gap you cannot close and no preference-point edge → usually no-go.
- Compliant, close on price, and the notice is complete → prepare the bid.
The compliance attrition factor
Many bids fail before scoring starts: missing SBD forms, expired tax status, unsigned packs, missed compulsory briefings. Your edge is a complete, on-time pack — not a predicted percentage.
What Tenderpreneurs will show instead
- The published criteria and recovered conditions on each notice
- Tender Check for gaps that make bids fail
- Create and Review tools for buyers before a notice is published
- PFMA / PPPFA guides with citations
Calculated bidding is a portfolio of measured risks. A made-up win percentage is not one of them.